{"id":36594,"date":"2025-04-14T18:51:38","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T18:51:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/?p=36594"},"modified":"2025-04-14T18:51:39","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T18:51:39","slug":"zuhal-mansfield-diyor-ki-paris-iklim-anlasmasindan-cikmaliyiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/2025\/04\/14\/zuhal-mansfield-diyor-ki-paris-iklim-anlasmasindan-cikmaliyiz\/","title":{"rendered":"Zuhal Mansfield diyor ki “Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u00c7\u0131kmal\u0131y\u0131z”"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019ndan \u00e7\u0131kmal\u0131y\u0131z!<\/strong>
Filmi ile \u015f\u00f6hret bulan Jurassic Park roman\u0131n\u0131n yazar\u0131 Michael Crichton\u2019un anlaml\u0131 bir s\u00f6z\u00fc var: \u201cGer\u00e7ek, fikir birli\u011fiyle belirlenmez.\u201d Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelince bu s\u00f6z akl\u0131ma geliyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda Paris\u2019te at\u0131lan imzalar, yaln\u0131zca bir iklim anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gelece\u011fine dair umut dolu bir ad\u0131m\u0131 temsil ediyordu. D\u00fcnya liderleri tarihe tan\u0131kl\u0131k ettiklerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrken, man\u015fetler iyimserlikle doldu; \u00e7evre \u00f6rg\u00fctleri meydanlara indi, finans d\u00fcnyas\u0131 \u201cye\u015fil\u201d bir devrimin e\u015fi\u011finde oldu\u011funu sand\u0131. Ancak bug\u00fcn, aradan ge\u00e7en y\u0131llar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan atmosfer h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor, karbon sal\u0131mlar\u0131 artmaya devam ediyor, enerji sistemleri fosil yak\u0131tlara s\u0131k\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ya ba\u011fl\u0131 kal\u0131yor.
Paris Antla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm yaratma iddias\u0131, art\u0131k sorgulanan bir hayalden \u00f6teye ge\u00e7emiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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O g\u00fcn at\u0131lan imzalar, sadece bir protokol\u00fcn kabul\u00fc de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda bir d\u00f6nemin umutlar\u0131yd\u0131. Ne var ki, y\u0131llar ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e bu umutlar beton duvarlara \u00e7arparak geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Hedefler, iyi niyetli ama sembolik kald\u0131. Rakamlar ise, g\u00f6rmezden gelinemeyecek \u015fekilde ters y\u00f6ne hareket etti. Art\u0131k mesele Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ya\u015fay\u0131p ya\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fil; hangi mezarl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6m\u00fclece\u011fi.
Trump\u2019\u0131n geri \u00e7ekili\u015fi: Paris\u2019in tabutuna ilk \u00e7ivi mi?
2017\u2019de d\u00f6nemin ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00fclkesini anla\u015fmadan \u00e7ekmesi, k\u00fcresel kamuoyunda b\u00fcy\u00fck yank\u0131 uyand\u0131rd\u0131. Medya bunu Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 en ciddi darbe olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ancak ger\u00e7ek \u015fu ki; Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131 en ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren k\u0131r\u0131lgan temeller \u00fczerine kurulmu\u015ftu ve ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa meyilliydi. Bug\u00fcn h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke ve ana ak\u0131m medya bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a kabullenmekte zorlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Trump\u2019\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131, anla\u015fmay\u0131 sembolik d\u00fczeyde zedelemi\u015f olabilir; ancak asl\u0131nda Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen etkisizli\u011fi, son imzalar daha kurumadan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Anla\u015fman\u0131n i\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131, k\u00fcresel fiziki, ekonomik ve sosyal dinamiklerle birle\u015fti\u011finde, sera gaz\u0131 emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak bir yana, art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimini bile durduracak g\u00fcce sahip de\u011fildi.
Zaten 2015\u2019te anla\u015fmay\u0131 haz\u0131rlayanlar bile, \u00fclkelerin verdi\u011fi taahh\u00fctlerin 2\u00b0C\u2019lik s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmak i\u00e7in yetersiz oldu\u011funu sessizce kabul etti. Yap\u0131lan analizler, taraflar\u0131n belirledi\u011fi hedeflere eksiksiz uymas\u0131 halinde bile, emisyon kesintilerinin 2\u00b0C e\u015fi\u011fini tutturmak i\u00e7in gerekli d\u00fczeyin yar\u0131s\u0131na dahi ula\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan bir rapor, t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler taahh\u00fctlerini tam anlam\u0131yla yerine getirse bile, y\u00fczy\u0131l sonunda s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 3\u00b0C\u2019ye kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Bu, anla\u015fman\u0131n kendi hedefleriyle \u00e7eli\u015fti\u011finin en a\u00e7\u0131k kan\u0131t\u0131yd\u0131.
Taahh\u00fctlerin arkas\u0131nda durmayan \u00fclkeler
Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 oyan en \u00f6nemli ger\u00e7eklerden biri, baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin taahh\u00fctlerini yerine getirme niyetlerinin olmamas\u0131 de\u011fil, art\u0131k bunu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ifade etmeleridir. Medyaya yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, Arjantin, Endonezya, G\u00fcney Afrika ve G\u00fcney Kore gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck yay\u0131c\u0131 \u00fclkeler; daha d\u00fcne kadar fosil yak\u0131t kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama ve emisyonlar\u0131 azaltma taahh\u00fctleriyle sahnedeyken, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a k\u00f6m\u00fcr, do\u011fal gaz ve petrol \u00fcretimini art\u0131racaklar\u0131n\u0131 beyan ediyorlar. \u00dcstelik bu kaynaklar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ABD\u2019den ithal etmeyi de planl\u0131yorlar.
Su\u00e7lu olarak Trump\u2019\u0131 g\u00f6stermek kolay, fakat veriler ba\u015fka bir \u015fey s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bug\u00fcn daha fazla fosil yak\u0131t isteyen bu \u00fclkeler, fosil t\u00fcketimlerini Trump\u2019\u0131n Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019ndan \u00e7ekilmesinden \u00e7ok \u00f6nce art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 bile. Hatta ilk taahh\u00fct d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7inde, emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in belirli hedefler koymu\u015f \u00fclkelerin hi\u00e7biri, bu hedeflere ula\u015fmada kayda de\u011fer bir ba\u015far\u0131 g\u00f6steremedi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u0130klim riskinin boyutlar\u0131 ger\u00e7ek mi?
Di\u011fer taraftan, Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndaki siyasi, bilimsel ve ekonomik yap\u0131lar\u0131na, Princeton \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nden sayg\u0131n fizik\u00e7i Prof. Dr. William Happer\u2019\u0131n bilimsel ele\u015ftirileri e\u015fli\u011finde de bakabiliriz.
Dr. William Happer, bu t\u00fcr anla\u015fmalar\u0131n, \u201ck\u0131l\u0131\u00e7s\u0131z antla\u015fmalar\u201d oldu\u011funu vurguluyor: \u201c\u0130klim politikalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu, temelsiz bilgisayar modellerine ve siyasi korkulara dayan\u0131yor. CO\u2082\u2019nin atmosferdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ya\u015fam\u0131n temelidir; tehlike de\u011fil.\u201d
CO\u2082 zehir mi, g\u0131da m\u0131?
Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve onu izleyen ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm politikalar\u0131, karbon dioksiti adeta bir \u201catmosferik \u015feytan\u201d ilan etti. Oysa Dr. Happer\u2019\u0131n fiziksel ve biyokimyasal analizleri, bunun aksini g\u00f6steriyor:
\u201cBitkiler, CO\u2082\u2019yi fotosentezle \u015fekere d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcr. CO\u2082 seviyesi tarihsel olarak \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksekti ve hayat geli\u015fti. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc seviyeler biyosfer i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr.\u201d
Dr. Happer\u2019a g\u00f6re, CO\u2082\u2019nin s\u0131cakl\u0131kla ili\u015fkisi neden-sonu\u00e7 de\u011fil, korelasyon temellidir. Is\u0131nma \u00f6nce gelir, CO\u2082 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 onu takip eder. Bu, Gr\u00f6nland ve Antarktika buz \u00e7ekirdeklerinde a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.
\u201cBug\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma, 1800\u2019lerde sona eren K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Buz \u00c7a\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan do\u011fal bir toparlanmad\u0131r. Fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n etkisi varsa bile, bu en fazla 0,75\u00b0C d\u00fczeyindedir.\u201d
Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten \u00f6ld\u00fc m\u00fc?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. Bilimsel Temelsizlik<\/strong>: Happer, \u201ciklim modellemeleri\u201dnin halk\u0131 yan\u0131ltmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u201cBu modeller geri bildirimleri \u00e7arp\u0131t\u0131yor. Do\u011fadaki sistemler \u00e7o\u011funlukla negatif geri beslemeye dayan\u0131r. \u0130klim modelleri bunu tersine \u00e7eviriyor.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Siyasi Yozla\u015fma:<\/strong> \u201cAra\u015ft\u0131rma fonlar\u0131, ancak iklim felaketi s\u00f6ylemini destekleyen projelere gidiyor. Gen\u00e7 akademisyenler, ailelerini ge\u00e7indirmek i\u00e7in susmak zorunda kal\u0131yor.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Medya Manip\u00fclasyonu: <\/strong>\u201cBug\u00fcn Corpus Christi\u2019de kar ya\u011farsa, medya bunu k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmaya ba\u011flar. Oysa bu, her 20 y\u0131lda bir olan do\u011fal bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcd\u00fcr.\u201d
    Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dezavantajlar\u0131
    2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda kabul edilen Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sanayi \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin 2\u00b0C alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 ve m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse 1,5\u00b0C ile s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan evrensel bir uzla\u015f\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 2021\u2019de onaylayarak 2053 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar net s\u0131f\u0131r emisyon hedefi belirledi. Ancak bu hedefe ula\u015fmak, \u00fclke a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yaln\u0131zca \u00e7evresel de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda ciddi ekonomik, yap\u0131sal ve siyasi engelleri a\u015fmay\u0131 gerektiriyor
    Ek I listesinin g\u00f6lgesinde ekonomik sorumluluklar
    T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi \u00c7er\u00e7eve S\u00f6zle\u015fmesi kapsam\u0131ndaki \u201cgeli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke\u201d stat\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00fclkeyi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin faydaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 finansman ve teknoloji desteklerinden b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde mahrum b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi, hem daha a\u011f\u0131r y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler alt\u0131na sokmakta hem de destek veren \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda konumland\u0131rarak d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm maliyetini kendi kaynaklar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131lamaya zorluyor.
    Bu durum, \u00f6zellikle Temiz Kalk\u0131nma Mekanizmalar\u0131 gibi fonlardan yararlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamakta ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ciddi bir mali y\u00fck getiriyor.
    D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karbonlu bir ekonomiye ge\u00e7i\u015f, y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde yat\u0131r\u0131m gerektirir. Enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilmek i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca bu alanda y\u0131ll\u0131k 5 ila 7 milyar dolar, genel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm i\u00e7inse yakla\u015f\u0131k 25 milyar dolar ek kayna\u011fa ihtiya\u00e7 duyuluyor.
    Bu rakam, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin GSYH\u2019sinin %2,8\u2019ine denk gelirken, 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla \u00fclkeye gelen do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m miktar\u0131 yaln\u0131zca 5,8 milyar dolarda kald\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131m giri\u015flerinin 2016 sonras\u0131 gerilemesi, iklim finansman\u0131n\u0131 eri\u015filmesi g\u00fc\u00e7 bir hedef h\u00e2line getirdi.
    Fosil enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131
    T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fosil yak\u0131tlara dayal\u0131d\u0131r. Toplam sera gaz\u0131 emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n %72,5\u2019i enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden kaynaklanmakta, \u00fclkenin enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc fosil kaynaklardan kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131yor.
    Ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131n %97\u2019si petrol, sanayinin ise %67\u2019si do\u011frudan fosil kaynaklarla besleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca, T\u00fcrkiye y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,8 milyar dolar\u0131 fosil yak\u0131t s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131na ay\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu tablo, ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm hedefleriyle \u00e7eli\u015fiyor.
    Avrupa pazar\u0131yla uyum sorunu
    Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin devreye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Karbon S\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 Ayarlama Mekanizmas\u0131 (CBAM), T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat performans\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ciddi bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcrkiye ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %50\u2019sini AB\u2019ye yaparken, \u00e7imento, demir-\u00e7elik, al\u00fcminyum ve elektrik gibi karbon yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rler ilave vergilerle rekabet dezavantaj\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle demir-\u00e7elik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc halen y\u00fcksek karbon i\u00e7erikli k\u00f6m\u00fcr kullanmakta; \u00e7imento sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ise k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta en y\u00fcksek emisyon yo\u011funlu\u011funa sahip end\u00fcstriler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.
    \u0130klim taahh\u00fctlerinin yetersizli\u011fi
    Climate Action Tracker, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin mevcut iklim politikalar\u0131n\u0131 \u201ckritik derecede yetersiz\u201d olarak s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmakta; \u00fclkenin Ulusal Katk\u0131 Beyan\u0131 (NDC), 2038\u2019e kadar emisyonlar\u0131n artmas\u0131na izin vererek 1,5\u00b0C hedefinden uzak bir senaryo ortaya koyuyor.
    T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2030 i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi 695 MtCO2e\u2019lik hedef, olmas\u0131 gerekenin iki kat\u0131 \u00fczerindedir. Bilimsel modellemeler, bu tarihte 310 MtCO2e d\u00fczeyine inilmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca, ara hedeflerin eksikli\u011fi, 2038 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f zorunlulu\u011fu do\u011furuyor.
    Fosil ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla \u00e7eli\u015fen gelecek
    T\u00fcrkiye, 2024 itibar\u0131yla Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00f6m\u00fcrle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan elektrik \u00fcreticisi konumuna geldi. Ancak k\u00f6m\u00fcrden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa dair net bir takvim sunmad\u0131. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar planlanan 270 sondaj operasyonu ve yerli fosil kaynak \u00fcretimini art\u0131rma politikalar\u0131, iklim taahh\u00fctleriyle derin bir \u00e7eli\u015fki i\u00e7inde bulunuyor. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde, \u00fclkenin enerji merkezi olma vizyonu, do\u011falgaz ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm stratejisini sekteye u\u011frat\u0131yor.
    \u0130klim politikalar\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131nda kurumsal kapasite ve d\u00fczenleyici \u00e7er\u00e7eve eksikli\u011fi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli engeldir. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke stat\u00fcs\u00fcne dair devam eden tart\u0131\u015fmalar, politika alan\u0131nda belirsizlik olu\u015fturuyor. Ve \u015feffafl\u0131k, izleme ve de\u011ferlendirme mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n yetersizli\u011fi, ilerlemenin izlenmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.
    Enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131
    T\u00fcrkiye enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ithalat yoluyla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Do\u011falgaz\u0131n tamam\u0131, petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin %91\u2019i ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn %77\u2019si yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan temin ediyor. Ana tedarik\u00e7i olarak Rusya \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 2001-2021 aras\u0131nda enerji t\u00fcketiminin ikiye katland\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2050\u2019ye dek elektrik talebinin %55 oran\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.
    Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm yaln\u0131zca finansal de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda teknolojik bir s\u0131\u00e7rama da gerektiriyor. 2030\u2019a kadar k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretiminin sonland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, yerli g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, karbon yakalama teknolojileri ile pil depolama altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesi bekleniyor.
    Karbon fiyatland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ton ba\u015f\u0131na 50-70 dolar aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fi tahmin edilirken, Emisyon Ticaret Sistemi\u2019nin (ETS) hayata ge\u00e7mesi sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn uluslararas\u0131 rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyebilir.
    T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin karbon yo\u011fun sekt\u00f6rleri, d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecinde ciddi uyum sorunlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. \u00dcretim sekt\u00f6r\u00fc Avrupa ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde emisyon \u00fcretirken, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc enerji verimlili\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan AB standartlar\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde. K\u00f6m\u00fcr ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde adil ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcre\u00e7leri \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden e\u011fitimi ve sosyal destek mekanizmalar\u0131 hayati h\u00e2le geliyor
    Umut veren geli\u015fmeler
    T\u00fcm bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcklerin yan\u0131nda, ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcreci T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in baz\u0131 stratejik f\u0131rsatlar da sunuyor. D\u00fc\u015fen fosil yak\u0131t ithalat\u0131 ve azalan hava kirlili\u011fi, uzun vadede ekonomik ve halk sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilir. 2022-2040 aras\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re, iklim politikalar\u0131ndan toplamda 146 milyar dolarl\u0131k ekonomik fayda elde edilebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.
    Ayr\u0131ca, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2030\u2019a kadar hedefledi\u011fi 10 GW g\u00fcne\u015f ve 16 GW r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisi kapasitesi, \u00fclkenin yenilenebilir enerji potansiyelini ortaya koyuyor. Co\u011frafi olarak enerji zengini b\u00f6lgelerle yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi b\u00f6lgesel bir enerji oyuncusu yapabilecek \u00f6nemli bir avantajd\u0131r.
    Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131: G\u00fczel niyetlerin politik kabusu
    Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131, tarihsel olarak ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmayan \u201ciyi niyet protokollerinin\u201d son halkas\u0131yd\u0131. Anla\u015fma, \u00fclkelerin kendi belirledikleri g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc emisyon azalt\u0131m hedeflerine dayan\u0131yordu. Ancak bu hedefler yasal zorunluluk ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, ulusal hukuk sistemlerinde ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 hale getirilmedi.
    BM \u00c7evre Program\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (UNEP) 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 Emissions Gap Report\u2019una g\u00f6re, \u00fclkelerin bug\u00fcne kadar verdikleri taahh\u00fctler, k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 2\u00b0C alt\u0131nda tutmaya yetmeyecek. Mevcut taahh\u00fctlerle, d\u00fcnya 2100 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar ortalama 2,7\u00b0C – 3,2\u00b0C aras\u0131 bir \u0131s\u0131nmaya mahk\u00fbm.
    \u0130klim diplomasisi lidersiz mi?
    B\u00fct\u00fcn bu geli\u015fmeler anla\u015fman\u0131n sonu muydu, yoksa baz\u0131 uzmanlara g\u00f6re bir \u201cuyar\u0131 ziline\u201d mi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc? Columbia \u00dcniversitesi \u0130klim Merkezi\u2019nden Prof. Jeffrey Sachs bu s\u00fcreci \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetledi: \u201cTrump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7ekilmesi, d\u00fcnya genelinde iklim diplomasisinde liderlik bo\u015flu\u011fu yaratt\u0131. Ancak bu bo\u015fluk, AB ve \u00c7in taraf\u0131ndan h\u0131zla dolduruldu. Bu bir gerileme de\u011fil, yeniden konumlanmayd\u0131.\u201d
    Nitekim Avrupa Birli\u011fi, 2019\u2019da Avrupa Ye\u015fil Mutabakat\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayarak 2050\u2019ye kadar karbon n\u00f6tr olma hedefini duyurdu. \u00c7in ise 2060\u2019\u0131 hedef belirledi ve sadece 2023\u2019te 120 GW\u2019l\u0131k yeni g\u00fcne\u015f paneli kurulumuyla d\u00fcnya liderli\u011fini peki\u015ftirdi.
    \u00c7in, Hindistan ve emisyon ger\u00e7e\u011fi
    Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 en \u00e7ok ele\u015ftiren kesimlerin hakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu bir nokta var: \u00c7in ve Hindistan, bu anla\u015fmada kesin emisyon azalt\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde bulunmad\u0131lar. \u00c7in\u2019in emisyonlar\u0131 2015\u2019ten bu yana her y\u0131l artt\u0131. 2024 itibar\u0131yla, k\u00fcresel CO2 emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n %32\u2019si \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131. Hindistan da b\u00fcy\u00fcyen n\u00fcfusu ve sanayi yap\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketimini art\u0131rmaya devam ediyor.
    Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) verilerine g\u00f6re, sadece \u00c7in 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 12,5 milyar ton CO2 sal\u0131m\u0131 yapt\u0131. Bu, Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019ndaki t\u00fcm hedeflerin toplam etkisini dengeleyebilecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir say\u0131.
    \u201cParis\u2019ten \u00e7\u0131kal\u0131m\u201d demek yetmez
    Evet, Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131 eksik, kusurlu ve hatta baz\u0131lar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00f6l\u00fc. Ancak yerine ne koyaca\u011f\u0131z? D\u00fcnya Meteoroloji \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (WMO) 2024 raporuna g\u00f6re, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 en s\u0131cak y\u0131l oldu ve 1,5\u00b0C s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na ge\u00e7ici olarak ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. O h\u00e2lde, anla\u015fmadan \u00e7\u0131kmak, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini yava\u015flatmaz; sadece T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi k\u00fcresel arenada yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.
    Prof. Dr. Mariana Mazzucato\u2019nun \u00f6nerdi\u011fi \u201cG\u00f6rev Odakl\u0131 \u0130klim Y\u00f6neti\u015fimi\u201d modeli \u00f6rnek al\u0131nabilir. Bu model, kamu-\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r i\u015fbirli\u011fini esas almal\u0131. Sadece hedef de\u011fil, uygulama a\u015famalar\u0131n\u0131 da takip etmeli. Vatanda\u015f kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etmeli (enerji kooperatifleri gibi) ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir, denetlenebilir ve esnek bir yap\u0131ya sahip olmal\u0131.
    Uygulama reformuna ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z var
    Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131, belki de tarih kitaplar\u0131nda \u201ciyi niyetli ama etkisiz\u201d olarak an\u0131lacak. Ancak onu toptan g\u00f6mmek yerine, dersler \u00e7\u0131kararak yeni bir iklim y\u00f6neti\u015fimi kurgulamak gerekiyor.
    T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in, illa anla\u015fmadan \u00e7\u0131kmak de\u011fil, ak\u0131ll\u0131 ve se\u00e7ici bir entegrasyon modeline ge\u00e7mek de \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olabilir.
    Sanayi, tar\u0131m, ula\u015f\u0131m ve enerji sekt\u00f6rlerinde karbon y\u00f6netimi odakl\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm planlanmal\u0131.
    Karbon ayak izi \u201cceza\u201d de\u011fil, \u201crekabet\u201d unsuru olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.
    Kanaryalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kurtarmak istiyorsak, sadece kafesin kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7mak yetmez. Onlara u\u00e7acak bir g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fc de sunmak gerekir. Bu g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fc, art\u0131k bo\u015f s\u00f6zlerle de\u011fil; bilimle, teknolojiyle ve samimi eylemlerle \u015fekillendirilmelidir.
    \u00c7a\u011fda\u015f bir yazar\u0131n s\u00f6z\u00fcyle konuya girdim, klasik bir felsefeci ile konuyu kapatay\u0131m: Toplum s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi teorisini anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 eseri Leviathan 1651) ile \u00fcnl\u00fc \u0130ngiliz siyaset felsefecisi Thomas Hobbes\u2019un \u015fu s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc unutmayal\u0131m: \u201cK\u0131l\u0131\u00e7s\u0131z antla\u015fmalar kelimelerden ba\u015fka bir \u015fey de\u011fildir.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019ndan \u00e7\u0131kmal\u0131y\u0131z!Filmi ile \u015f\u00f6hret bulan Jurassic Park roman\u0131n\u0131n yazar\u0131 Michael Crichton\u2019un anlaml\u0131 bir s\u00f6z\u00fc var: \u201cGer\u00e7ek, fikir birli\u011fiyle belirlenmez.\u201d Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36595,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,10,186,11,12,192,185,15],"tags":[1275,1387,1386],"class_list":["post-36594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-ekonomi","category-finans","category-genel","category-gundem","category-kose-yazilari","category-manset","category-turkiye","tag-kose-yazisi","tag-paris-iklim-anlasmasi","tag-zuhal-mansfield"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36594","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36594"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36594\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36601,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36594\/revisions\/36601"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}