{"id":22836,"date":"2021-10-27T06:20:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-27T06:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haberglobal.com.tr\/dunya\/joe-bidenin-kamuoyu-destegi-ilk-9-ayinda-eridi-canlar-biden-icin-caliyor-140402"},"modified":"2021-10-27T06:20:00","modified_gmt":"2021-10-27T06:20:00","slug":"canlar-biden-icin-caliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/2021\/10\/27\/canlar-biden-icin-caliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7anlar Biden i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131yor…"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

ABD<\/a> Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joe Biden<\/a> g\u00f6revde yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 ay\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hamleler nedeniyle s\u00fcrekli g\u00fcndemde olan Biden, ad\u0131n\u0131 tarihe ge\u00e7irdi ancak kendisi ad\u0131na pek de ho\u015f olmayan bir tabloyla…<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyaca \u00fcnl\u00fc ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketi Gallup’un 1937’den bu yana ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ve ABD ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n kamuoyu nezdindeki kabul oranlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en ankette \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

EN D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK \u0130K\u0130NC\u0130…<\/strong><\/h3>\n

1977-1981’de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k g\u00f6revini yapan Jimmy Carter’dan bu yana ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n ilk dokuz ayl\u0131k onay oranlar\u0131na (approval rating)<\/strong> bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Joe Biden y\u00fczde 42’yle en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ikinci y\u00fczdeye sahip ba\u015fkan olarak dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u0130lk s\u0131rada ise y\u00fczde 37’yle Donald Trump yer almaktayd\u0131.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Biden’\u0131n oran\u0131nda ciddi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7eken Gallup, Haziran 2021’de y\u00fczde 56’yla Biden iktidar\u0131n\u0131n zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurgulad\u0131. Peki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe sebep olan neydi?<\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yaz aylar\u0131n\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir hal ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Oran, A\u011fustos 2021’de y\u00fczde 49, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 43’e gerilemi\u015f. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sebepleri asl\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

ABD’nin Afganistan’dan fiyaskoya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131; Covid-19 vakalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f; pandemi kaynakl\u0131 kriz nedeniyle ya\u015fanan tedarik zinciri sorunlar\u0131 ve Ba\u015fkan ile Demokratlar\u0131n, Kongre’de siyasi icraatlar\u0131na onay almakta s\u00fcrekli zorlan\u0131yor olmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7eken sebepleri aras\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde Haziran 2021’e gelindi\u011finde a\u015f\u0131lamada h\u0131zlanan ve normalle\u015fmeye giden ABD, Biden’a deste\u011fi de yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

BAZILARI ONUN HATASI DE\u011e\u0130L AMA…<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Bu geli\u015fmelerden baz\u0131lar\u0131 -\u00f6zellikle de Delta varyant\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve \u00fclkedeki a\u015f\u0131lanmam\u0131\u015f insanlar\u0131 tahrip etmesi- Biden’\u0131n hatas\u0131 de\u011fil ama ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funda oturman\u0131n bedeli de bu. Biden da kendisini b\u00f6yle bir noktada bulmu\u015f durumda…<\/p>\n

Lakin ba\u015fkan\u0131n onay oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f ya da y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131 ikinci d\u00f6nem \u00f6ncesi i\u00e7in pek anlam ifade etmiyor. Zira Baba Bush yani George H.W. Bush ilk dokuz ay\u0131 sonunda y\u00fczde 70’lik onay oran\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Bill Clinton’a ma\u011flup olmu\u015ftu. Keza Jimmy Carter da y\u00fczde 54’e ra\u011fmen Ronald Reagan’a koltu\u011fu kapt\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Soldan sa\u011fa: George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter (Foto\u011fraf: Shutterstock)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Bill Clinton ise ilk dokuz ay sonunda y\u00fczde 47’lik bir oranda olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ikinci kez ba\u015fkan se\u00e7ilebilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

ASIL TEHL\u0130KE: ARA SE\u00c7\u0130MLER<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Burada Biden i\u00e7in as\u0131l tehlike ara se\u00e7imleri i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Ara se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi onay oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 50’nin alt\u0131na indi\u011fi her senaryoda, ABD Temsilciler Meclisi’nde ba\u015fkan\u0131n partisi ortalama 37 sandalye kaybediyor.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

2018’de, se\u00e7imden \u00f6nceki son Gallup anketinde Trump’\u0131n onay oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 40’lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler, 40 sandalyeyi -ve \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu- kaybetti. 2010’da ise Barack Obama<\/a>‘n\u0131n onay oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 45’e gerilemi\u015fti. Bunun sonucunda Demokratlar 63 sandalye ve yine \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu kaybetti. \u00c7ok benzer bir senaryo 1994’te de ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Clinton’un onay oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 46’ya inerken Demokratlar bunun sonucunda \u00e7o\u011funlukla birlikte 53 sandalyeyi Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilere teslim etti.<\/p>\n

Anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z; rakamlar ortada ve tablo 2022’de Demokratlar i\u00e7in iyi haberlere i\u015faret etmiyor. Lakin ara se\u00e7imlere daha bir sene var. Ve e\u011fer Biden ve Kongre’deki Demokratlar, bir \u015fekilde, zorlu altyap\u0131 plan\u0131 ve sosyal g\u00fcvenlik a\u011f\u0131 mevzuat\u0131n\u0131 kabul ettirmeyi ba\u015far\u0131rsa Kas\u0131m 2022’deki se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi oy verecek olanlara sunabilece\u011fi bir ba\u015far\u0131 elde etmi\u015f olur.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte Covid-19 vakalar\u0131ndaki trend, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcne do\u011fru d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Bu da Biden’\u0131n i\u015fine gelebilir. \u015eimdilerde mevcut ba\u015fkan\u0131 zor duruma sokan d\u0131\u015f etkenler r\u00fczgar tersine esince Biden lehine de d\u00f6nebilir. Baba ve O\u011ful Bush tam da bundan faydalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

BUSH’LARA YARAMI\u015eTI!<\/strong><\/h3>\n

George W. Bush’un onay oran\u0131 11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001 ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan adeta zirveye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ve y\u00fczde 88’le inan\u0131lmaz bir seviyeye gelmi\u015fti. Haziran 1989’da \u00c7in’deki Tienanmen Meydan\u0131 Olaylar\u0131 ve yay\u0131lan So\u011fuk Sava\u015f’\u0131n sona erdi\u011fi fikri ise George H.W. Bush’un balonunu dolduran r\u00fczgar olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdiki tabloda onay oran\u0131 noktas\u0131nda Demokratlar\u0131n verdikleri m\u00fccadele, hem partiyi hem de Biden’\u0131 siyasi olarak, kontrol etmenin epey zor oldu\u011fu bir alanda olduk\u00e7a zorlu bir konuma sokuyor.<\/p>\n

metin.aktasoglu@haberglobal.com.tr<\/a> <\/p>\n

*Bu haberdeki bilgilerin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 CNN’de \u201cJoe Biden’s approval ratings are worse than every recent president — except 1 — at this stage\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yay\u0131nlanan makaleden derlenmi\u015ftir.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kaynak: Web \u00d6zel<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joe Biden, Beyaz Saray’a ta\u015f\u0131nal\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k dokuz ay oldu. Haziran ay\u0131ndan beri halk\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnde ‘ba\u015f a\u015fa\u011f\u0131’ gidiyor. Halka…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":22837,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22836","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22836","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22836"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22836\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22837"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22836"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22836"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/istanbulchannel.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22836"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}